Why RAM, SSDs AND hard drives suddenly become expensive again. The background to the price explosion in 2025

Have you felt the price increases in the last few weeks/months? Are you planning to upgrade or are you waiting?

If you don't ignore everything, you've probably already noticed: The days of cheap memory upgrades are over for now. Anyone who has looked for DDR5 RAM, SSDs or even classic hard drives in recent weeks has been confronted with a nasty awakening. All prices shoot through the ceiling and massively. What was affordable a year ago, today costs at least 25, sometimes even 100 percent more. But why is it now everything So expensive? Let's take a closer look at the background of this unprecedented development.

The price roller coaster: From cheap to absurdly expensive

Do you remember the golden days of early 2024 and the first quarter of 2025? A 16 GB DDR5-5600 bar was already available from 45 euros. Today? At least 70 euros, the trend continues to rise. In the case of DDR4, the relative increase is even sharper here, we are talking in part about tripling prices.

Another example: A common 32 GB DDR5 kit (2×16 GB) cost around 125 euros in July 2025. In October, it was already over 200 euros. That's a 60 percent price increase in just three months! And some high-end kits have even gained 27 percent in a single month.

With SSDs, it looks similarly gloomy. Although the price increases here are even more moderate than with RAM, the trend is clear: Experts expect increases of 5 to 15 percent in consumer SSDs and up to 25 percent in enterprise models. In the fourth quarter of 2025, things should get right again.

And now comes the hammer: Even classic HDDs are affected! A 20TB Toshiba hard drive, which was still available for 290 euros in mid-2024, now costs 360 euros from the cheapest provider, an increase of 25 percent. For under 300 you get now only 12TB or 14er. For some server hard drives, the situation is even more dramatic.

The main culprit: The AI boom

The answer to the question ‘Who is to blame?’ is quite clear: Artificial intelligence. But wait, before you say "My gaming PC doesn't need any HBM memory for AI accelerators!" let me explain: Why do you still pay the bill?.

Production capacities are repurposed

The three major players in the DRAM market, Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, dominate over 90 percent of global production. And these manufacturers have massively changed their production lines in recent months. The reason? The demand for specialized storage types for AI applications is skyrocketing:

• HBM3/HBM4 (High Bandwidth Memory) for AI Accelerators
• LPDDR5X for AI servers and modern notebooks
• GDDR6/GDDR7 for powerful graphics cards

The problem with this: When the production capacities for these lucrative high-end products are used, there is less room for ‘normal’ DDR4 and DDR5 memory. The classic principle of supply and demand applies here mercilessly.

Specific figures on AI demand

The dimensions are really impressive: Nvidia's upcoming GB200 servers will get 288 GB of HBM4 storage, while AMD's MI450 will get 432 GB. For 2024 alone, AI applications are expected to devour SSDs with a total capacity of over 45 exabytes (that's 45 million terabytes!) No wonder we have fewer regular users.

DDR4: The Silent Death of a Standard

The situation with DDR4 memory is particularly dramatic. Market researchers are talking about price increases of up to 45 percent in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. Why DDR4 is so badly affected?

The major manufacturers have already sent so-called end-of-life notifications. This means: Production of DDR4 will be phased out. Micron, Samsung and Co. want to focus on DDR5 and this changeover does not happen gently, but with the crowbar.

The result: Panic purchases from companies that still rely on DDR4. Server operators, industrial customers and OEMs stock up on supplies before availability collapses completely. In the meantime, DDR4 was even more expensive than DDR5. An absurd situation that shows how distorted the market is right now.

Although some smaller manufacturers are thinking about continuing DDR4 production, these are drops in the bucket. The train left.

Windows 10 Support End as Fire Accelerator

Another factor that drives demand: Support for Windows 10 will end in October 2025. This may not sound like much at first glance, but the effects are noticeable. Millions of users and businesses are faced with the decision: Upgrade to Windows 11 or buy a new PC?

Windows 11 is known to have higher hardware requirements and many are taking advantage of the opportunity for a complete system upgrade. This means: More demand for DDR5 RAM, more demand for fast NVMe SSDs. Exactly at the wrong time.

The hard drive disaster: One year delivery time!

Now it's really going crazy: For nearline-class server hard drives (cost-optimized HDDs for data centers), we speak of Delivery times up to one year, if someone wants to order larger quantities. Yes, you read correctly: A whole year!

What happened?

The HDD manufacturers have massively shut down their production in recent years. The reason? The demand for classic hard drives declined steadily as more and more users switched to SSDs. Hard drive production has been cut by up to 20 percent, and manufacturing capacity has not been expanded.

Then came the AI boom. Suddenly, hyperscalers (large cloud operators) need gigantic amounts of storage space for their new data centers. Particularly Inference server On which fully trained AI models run, the demand is driving up. The manufacturers were completely surprised by this onslaught.

Western Digital and Seagate sound the alarm

Both major HDD manufacturers have now warned their partners: Prices are going up, and immediately. Western Digital has even announced that it will ship more hard disks by sea freight instead of by plane, saving the Group money, but meaning delivery times of up to 10 weeks from Asia to Europe or the United States.

The message is clear: If you order now, you not only have to pay more, but also wait significantly longer.

The Cascade Effect on SSDs

Here it gets really interesting: Because server HDDs are so scarce, data center operators are increasingly switching to SSDs, even for so-called Cold storage, i.e. the long-term storage of data where the speed of SSDs is not required at all.

The consequence? SSDs are also becoming scarcer. Sandisk has already increased the price of NAND flash devices by 10 percent. Micron has suspended its pricing information for a week to set new prices that are expected to rise by as much as 30 percent.

In concrete terms, this means: Hard drive scarcity is driving up SSD prices. A perfect storm for those who need storage space.

The global factors: Geopolitics, inflation and natural disasters

In addition to AI demand, there are other factors driving prices:

Production cuts

After years of oversupply and poor margins, manufacturers have deliberately reduced their production. Samsung is said to have reduced its NAND flash production by a whopping 50 percent by the end of 2023. This was a strategic decision to stop the price drop and it works perfectly. At least for the manufacturers.

Geopolitical tensions

Taiwan is at the heart of chip production. Political tensions in the region, US trade restrictions and tariffs create additional uncertainty. Supply chains are fragile, and any disruption immediately hits prices.

disasters

In January 2024, an earthquake in Taiwan destroyed around 60,000 wafers at TSMC. Such events may be accidental, but they exacerbate the already tense supply situation.

Inflation and energy costs

General production costs are also rising. Higher energy prices, inflation and higher labour costs are passed on by manufacturers to end customers. That may not be the main driver, but it comes on top of that.

A ‘historical’ bottleneck – says the industry itself

Adata's Simon Chen, who has been in the storage industry for 30 years, recently spoke out: He speaks of one ‘historical’ It's a bottleneck he hasn't seen in his entire career. That means something.

Be for the first time “simultaneous shortages of DDR4, DDR5, NAND and HDD” to observe. There has never been such a thing. The inventories of the manufacturers are only enough for a few weeks instead of months -> an extremely alarming sign.

Chen warns that this scarcity "will last for at least four years or more", As long as the AI boom continues unabated. Other experts are a bit more optimistic and speak of a possible relaxation from 2026, but no one expects a quick solution.

How long will this madness last?

The uncomfortable truth: Probably for quite a while. TrendForce forecasts further price increases for Q4 2025:

• Conventional DRAM: +8 to 13 percent
• HBM: +13 to 18 percent
• DDR5: still tense
• LPDDR4X: +10%
• Client SSDs: +3 to 8 percent
• Enterprise SSDs: +10 to 25 percent
• HDDs: Price increases and long delivery times

The market researchers expect manufacturers to increasingly switch to HBM4 from the beginning of 2026, which could further reduce the supply of normal DDR5 RAM.

End customers still (partially) spared

A little good news: In the case of SSDs, the sharpest price increases currently relate primarily to high-capacity QLC Building Blocks (Quadruple Level Cells) for servers. Consumer SSDs with TLC chips (Triple Level Cells) are a bit cheaper to have, at least for the moment.

But: As manufacturers shift their production to lucrative server models, fewer HDDs and SSDs go into retail. This would also affect consumer products.

What can you do now?

The recommendation is clear: If you're planning an upgrade, don't wait any longer. Prices will continue to rise, not fall. This is not scaremongering, but simply reality.

Specific tips:

1. Buy now if necessary: Do you really need more RAM, a new SSD or an additional hard drive? Then strike before it gets even more expensive.
2. Pay attention to offers: Even if the base prices rise, there are always actions. Price comparison sites are your friend.
3. Rethinking DDR4 systems: If you are still betting on DDR4 and want to upgrade, you should consider whether a complete change to DDR5 does not make more sense. DDR4 is becoming increasingly difficult to obtain and relatively expensive.
4. Choosing capacity cleverly: It is better to invest in sufficient capacity now instead of having to buy again later – at even higher prices.
5. Used hardware as an alternative: The second-hand market could become interesting, with prices likely to rise here as well.
6. Plan ahead for hard drives: If you want to build or expand a NAS, do it now. Delivery times and prices will continue to deteriorate.

Is there a ray of light?

In the long run, yes. New manufacturing plants from Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron are scheduled to start operations in 2026. Chinese manufacturers such as ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) are expanding their capacities and could create more competition. But until then, we have to go through this phase.

The typical ‘pig cycle’ in the storage market (i.e. the interplay between oversupply and scarcity) is just being completely disrupted by the AI boom. The rules that have been in place for decades no longer apply.

Conclusion: The Perfect Storm Meets ALL Storage Types

What we are witnessing right now is the convergence of several unfavourable factors – and for the first time in the history of the storage industry. all memory types at the same time affected:

• AI boom Creates massive demand for high-end storage and mass storage for data centers
• Production changeover from DDR4 to DDR5 and from normal DRAM to HBM
• Conscious capacity reductions the manufacturer for price stabilization after years of bad margins
• HDD manufacturers completely surprised Sudden demand and unable to respond quickly
• Cascade effect: Hard drive scarcity drives SSD demand, which further increases their prices
• Windows 10 support end Increases PC demand
• Geopolitical uncertainty and supply chain issues
• General inflation and rising production costs

This is annoying for us as end customers. For the manufacturers it is a dream, after years of meager margins they finally earn real money again. And as long as the AI industry continues to pump billions into new data centers, that won't change.

The message is clear: The era of cheap storage is over for now! Through the bank with RAM, SSDs and Hard drives. Plan your upgrades wisely and strike when you really need something. Because it doesn't get cheaper so quickly.

TL:DR – The main takeaways:

RAM prices: +20 to 60 percent (GDR5), sometimes even more with DDR4
SSD prices: +5 to 25 percent depending on type, trend increasing
HDD prices: +15 to 25 percent, for server HDD up to one year delivery time

cause: AI boom + production cuts + concurrent bottlenecks for all
prognosis: Improvement not earlier than 2026, possibly only in 4-10 years
Recommendation for action: Buy now if you need anything!