What to expect in 2026? The next price bomb is ticking: Graphics card scarcity at 5060 TI 16GB and 5070 TI ahead
You thought the days of overpriced graphics cards were over? False hope, folks. Current rumors from China suggest that Nvidia plans to cut its GeForce GPU production by a whopping 30 to 40 percent in the first half of 2026, compared to the first half of 2025. This could mean: Higher prices, poorer availability and a lot of frustration with the next upgrade.
Which models are particularly hard hit?
According to reports from the Chinese Boardchannel forum and the usually well-informed site benchlife.info from Hong Kong In particular, two models are expected to suffer from production cutbacks:
The GeForce RTX 5070 Ti
This card uses the same GPU chip as the RTX 5080, only in a slimmed-down version with partially deactivated units. The storage equipment is identical. The problem from Nvidia's point of view: The RTX 5080 costs about 300 euros more and thus brings significantly higher profit margins. No wonder, then, that Nvidia prefers to produce the more expensive variant.
The GeForce RTX 5060 Ti with 16 GB
This version is likely to remain a niche product anyway. thinks heise.de in your article on the topic. For most budget gamers, 8 GB is still enough, and if you really need more memory, you'd better go straight to a higher GPU class. In the forum there is headwind for this, which I can also understand: [...the smallest 16 GB version of Nvidia is the go-to model for price-sensitive home users if you want to run generative AI solutions locally...]
When will we feel the effects?
The scarcity of trade is likely to be a few months away. A silicon wafer goes through several thousand production steps, which takes weeks to months. In addition, there are transport routes from Asia to Europe or the USA. So realistically expects noticeable bottlenecks in late spring or summer 2026.
The real reason: GDDR7 memory is scarcer than expected
The official reason for the production cuts? Lack of storage. More specifically: There is a lack of GDDR7 memory chips installed in the new GeForce cards. This sounds surprising at first, after all, as the most valuable company in the world, Nvidia should actually have enough market power to secure the required quantities.
But here comes the crux: Nvidia simply doesn't have much interest in fighting for gaming GPUs. Why? Because the GeForce division is downright ridiculously small compared to the AI business. In the last quarter, Nvidia generated more than $51 billion in revenue from servers and network technology. With GeForce GPUs? Just $4.3 billion.
The priorities are clear: Nvidia is almost entirely focused on AI accelerators for data centers. In the current annual reports, GeForce sales records are not even mentioned anymore. That actually says it all.
Storage suppliers prioritize more lucrative customers
In addition, Nvidia has changed its strategy. In the past, the group sold GPU chips and DRAM components bundled to the graphics card manufacturers. This practice will probably no longer continue in its usual form.. The card manufacturers now have to get the memory themselves and compete with all other customers for the scarce GDDR7 capacities.
And do you know who's looking for high-end storage? That's right: The entire AI industry. Whether HBM3, HBM4, LPDDR5X or GDDR7, all types of memory are in high demand and manufacturers earn significantly more with these high-end products than with consumer RAM or standard graphics card memory.
The big picture: A memory shortage across the board
If you think ‘well, I'm going to buy an AMD graphics card’, I have bad news: AMD is also affected. benchlife.info mentions that there will be further price increases for Radeon graphics cards in early 2026. Although nominally there are already price adjustments, which have so far had a major impact on the Radeon RX 9060 XT. With the RX 9070 XT and RX 9070, AMD's discount campaigns have offset the increased costs so far. But realistically; How long?
The connection with the general storage crisis
Who wrote my previous article about the Price explosion for RAM, SSDs and hard drives As you read, you already know the pattern: The AI boom is causing a historical scarcity Allen Storage types at the same time. This has never happened in this form.
DDR4 and DDR5 RAM have become massively more expensive (sometimes more than 100 percent in just three months), SSDs are catching up, and even classic hard drives are experiencing price increases and delivery times of up to one year on server models. Production capacities are being completely redeployed; away from consumer products, towards lucrative AI server components.
The same principle now applies to graphics cards: Manufacturing capacity for GDDR7 is limited, and Nvidia has no incentive to fight for these capacities for gaming GPUs when AI accelerators make significantly more profit.
What does this mean for you as a gamer and PC builder?
The prognosis is, unfortunately, quite clear: 2026 will not be a good year for GPU buyers. If the rumors come true, we can expect:
- Higher prices due to artificial scarcity and a real lack of storage
- Poor availability Popular mid-range models
- Longer waiting times After the launch of new models
- Fewer discount promotions on the part of manufacturers
Should you buy a graphics card now?
If you're currently thinking about upgrading your GPU, ask yourself the following questions:
Do you really need an upgrade? If your current card is still sufficient, better wait. The situation could relax again in 2027 when new production capacities go online.
Are you planning to buy a RTX 5070 Ti or 5060 Ti 16GB? Then you should hurry. These models will probably soon become particularly scarce and expensive.
Are you looking for high-end GPUs? The RTX 5090 and 5080 are likely to be less affected, as Nvidia makes higher margins here and prioritizes production.
Is AMD an alternative? In the short term, perhaps, but here too, prices are rising. The Radeon RX-9000 series is also affected by memory shortages.
Outlook 2026 and beyond
The coming months will be exciting (and probably frustrating) because several factors could exacerbate the situation:
New product generations: Both Nvidia and AMD are expected to introduce new GPU architectures in 2026. Launches are traditionally accompanied by delivery problems, and this time it could be particularly violent.
Progressive AI boom: As long as Big Tech continues to pump billions into new data centers, storage demand will remain high. Experts believe that the scarcity could last for years to come.
New manufacturing capacities: Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron are building new plants to go live in 2026. This could provide relief in the medium term, but only in the medium term.
Chinese competition: Manufacturers such as ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) could create more competition in the market. However, it remains to be seen whether and when their products will become available to a significant extent.
2027 as a year of hope?
Realistically, a noticeable improvement can be expected from 2027 at the earliest. Then the new production capacities should take effect and the first onslaught on AI hardware may have calmed down a bit. Until then, it reads: Have patience or reach deep into your pocket.
Conclusion: The onion leather purse becomes thinner
If you have tears in your eyes when looking into your purse, it's not because of the onions from the last doner. It's the price of PC hardware that makes you cry. After RAM, SSDs and hard drives, it now also hits graphics cards with full force.
The combination of strategic production throttling, real memory scarcity and Nvidia's focus on the lucrative AI business is a perfect storm for anyone looking to buy a new GPU in 2026. The at least better times of GPU bargains after the crypto crash are probably over again.
My advice: Plan your upgrades wisely. If your current hardware is still sufficient, wait. But if you urgently need a new card, keep your eyes open for good offers and strike if you find a fair offer. It will probably not be cheaper in the next 12 to 24 months.
The reality is hard: At least for 2026, possibly even 2027, we have to adjust to significantly higher prices. The AI boom is eating up our gaming hardware budgets and there is no end in sight.
TL:DR
Production cuts: Nvidia wants GeForce production around 30-40% lowering
Models concerned: Especially RTX 5070 Ti and RTX 5060 Ti 16GB
Main reason: GDDR7 storage shortage + focus on lucrative AI business
Timeframe: Scarcity noticeable from spring/summer 2026
AMD is also affected: Radeon Price Increases Announced for 2026
Context: Part of the general memory crisis (RAM, SSD, HDD)
Forecast: Improvement not earlier than 2027
Recommendation for action: If urgently needed, buy now, otherwise wait
Get out the handkerchiefs, there's tears.
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